这位传奇CEO振兴了7-11，却救不了百视达
James Keyes 2024-01-25
全球最大的便利零售商濒临破产的经历，足以让人们警醒，让人们认识到在便利零售业，变化和积极应对变化是基础。
詹姆斯·凯斯现任Key Development有限责任公司的董事长，之前曾经担任7-11和百视达的首席执行官。图片来源：ANGELA TALLEY COURTESY OF JAMES KEYES
变化不可避免。自古以来，人类都会想方设法将变化变成机会，商业由此诞生。在人类历史上，一些最好的商业机遇，都源自个人或企业在变革期抓住了机会。事实上，这就是首席执行官的主要工作。在7-11（7-Eleven）和百视达（Blockbuster）担任首席执行官期间，我对CEO这个首字母缩略词的解读并不是“首席执行官”，而是“变化等于机会”（Change Equals Opportunity）。
一些首席执行官和他们所在的公司会拥抱变革，抓住机遇，实现繁荣发展，有些却会错失良机。两者的区别往往在于他们是否具备了成功推动业务转型的先决条件。决定输赢的并非变化本身，而是人们应对变化的方式。有时候我们会通过正规的商业教育学到这些原则，但通常情况下这些知识都源自来之不易的经历。纳尔逊·曼德拉曾经说过：“我从未失败。要么赢，要么成长。”现在，我有一些可以分享的“成长经历”。
面对变化，成功实现业务转型有三个先决条件：现金管理、信心和合作。迄今为止，管理现金流是最重要的，但维持充足的现金需要信心与合作。
振兴7-11
7-11是研究现金流的重要性和合作的力量的一个案例。美国南方公司（The Southland Corporation）在1987年6月宣布杠杆收购（LBO）期间，有扩张全球最大便利零售商的大计划。但到10月，金融市场遭遇了严重的市场崩溃，史称“黑色星期一”（Black Monday），一夜之间市值缩水了超过1.7万亿美元。南方公司继续自己的计划，最终获得了交易需要的资金，但公司为此负债40亿美元，利率超过16%。在杠杆收购交易之后，公司必须立即调整业务重心，以应对巨额利息负担。出售业绩不佳的门店、附属业务和公务机队远远不够。1991年，公司被迫申请破产重组。管理层、特许经营商和员工对公司的商业模式失去了信心。公司销售下滑，士气低迷。
但得益于现金流管理、合作与信心，公司看到了一线希望。7-11最大、最成功的授权商日本伊藤洋华堂（Ito Yokado）通过预装破产为公司提供了资金和帮助。凭借对技术的成功利用和授权商证明的新产品的优势，公司改善了经营模式，逆转了长达10年的同店销售额负增长周期，在业务转型后同店销售额有40个季度保持增长，创历史纪录。客户对便利的需求每天都会发生变化，而7-11利用技术，在全球8万多家门店跟上了变化的速度。
全球最大的便利零售商濒临破产的经历，足以让人们警醒，让人们认识到在便利零售业，变化和积极应对变化是基础。
为什么现金始终为王
2005年，7-11公司被成功出售之后，我迫切想把这些经验教训，应用到另一家面临挑战、需要进行业务转型的公司。百视达就是最好的目标。这家公司顺利度过了从VHS录像带到DVD的媒体娱乐转型，甚至经历了DVD领域的“蓝光与高清”之争并存活了下来，但该公司并没有数字化转型的明确计划。
百视达的DVD邮寄租赁业务能够与Netflix成功竞争，但该公司在这个竞争领域却采取了极端措施。Netflix的首席执行官里德·黑斯廷斯称因为对百视达的逾期费用不满，并受此启发创建了Netflix的商业模式。百视达当时的应对方式是取消逾期费，这最终导致该公司放弃了高达8,000万美元的息税折旧摊销前收益（EBITDA）。百视达的资产负债表上有超过10亿美元的负债，失去了这笔息税折旧摊销前收益，不仅限制了百视达与Netflix竞争的能力，也让百视达无法履行其债务义务。
2007年7月，在我担任百视达首席执行官的第一周，我发现百视达（再次）违反了一项银行协议，并且陷入了现金流危机。我根据我们的新转型计划，通过谈判使这项违约得到豁免。
转型计划的一个重要组成部分是收购由六家大型电影制片厂中的五家合作创建的视频流媒体服务公司MovieLink。当时，MovieLink拥有规模最大的流媒体视频库，提供3,000多部电影。百视达收购MovieLink后，将后者更名为Blockbuster On Demand，在与Netflix的DVD邮寄租赁业务甚至新推出的流媒体业务的竞争里，获得了巨大的优势。当时Netflix仅提供数量极其有限的老电影资源库。相比之下，百视达推出了全接入（Total Access）服务，提供5,000多家百视达门店、Blockbuster By Mail、Blockbuster Kiosks和Blockbuster On Demand的娱乐内容，拥有最便利的媒体娱乐渠道。
百视达有得天独厚的条件在视频大战中取胜，在2008年第三季度的财报里，百视达公布了强劲的净收益，息税折旧摊销前收益几乎翻了一番。当时，公司逃过了现金流危机，但2009年公司即将需要偿还一笔债务，百视达的债务再融资变得至关重要。与此同时，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）的破产让全球金融市场崩溃，对市场造成了冲击。我们一直在游说穆迪（Moody’s）和标准普尔（S&P）重新评估百视达的债务评级。穆迪把公司的债务评级提高了两级，但却在新闻稿中表示，金融市场的不确定性提高了百视达的违约概率。百视达的10亿美元债务里，有三分之一计划在2009年再融资，穆迪警告百视达可能无法完成债务再融资。
虽然百视达积极响应变化，但2008年金融市场的突然崩溃迫使公司必须马上采取行动。在这种充满挑战性的时期，维持董事会、员工和股东的信心至关重要。合作变得更重要，因为显而易见，公司的现金跑道不足以进行债务再融资以及继续投资数字转型。
公司探索了多次合作机会。与维亚康姆公司（Viacom）的潜在合作，有可能让公司获得市场上60%以上老电影的独家数字版权。百视达收购MovieLink之后，已经获得了新流媒体内容的使用权限。与维亚康姆合作本来可以阻止Netflix获得流媒体内容，但价格高昂。五年5亿美元的价格超出了百视达当时能够支撑的现金流，导致董事会放弃了这次机会，并让Netflix有机会获得流媒体内容的非排他性使用权。第二个甚至更令人激动的合作对象是谷歌（Google）。与谷歌合作，本来可以让YouTube和百视达分享YouTube上的任何免费内容和百视达上的付费内容。将谷歌变成发行合作伙伴，能够给百视达带来巨大的竞争优势，形成一个现在尚未出现的一站式流媒体娱乐平台。百视达董事会签署了最终协议，但《洛杉矶时报》（LA Times）曝出百视达可能被迫申请破产的“谣言”后，合作被迫搁置。
这条谣言在电影公司中引起了恐慌。它们纷纷把百视达的信用条款从90天缩短到现金支付，在短短几周内，百视达的现金减少了近3亿美元。利益相关者的信心难以维持，但它可能决定了公司根据《破产法》第7章申请破产清算，还是根据第11章申请破产重组。好在我们找到了另外一家合作伙伴Dish Network，并在重组过程里被后者收购。得益于与Dish的合作，百视达可以在视频流媒体战争中继续战斗。虽然百视达品牌依旧处于被搁置的状态，但在Dish的领导下，未来它可能会重新崛起，或许能够提供目前视频流媒体市场上尚不存在的内容聚合服务。
在7-11和百视达的经历告诉我，任何公司都需要适应变化。这需要公司有信心规划新路线，成功度过业务转型的艰难过程，但积极管理现金流依旧是首要任务。虽然债务可以是任何公司发展的重要工具，但在经济动荡和金融市场波动时期，始终是现金为王。（财富中文网）
本文作者詹姆斯·凯斯（James Keyes）现任Key Development有限责任公司（Key Development LLC）的董事长，之前曾经担任7-11和百视达的首席执行官。
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
变化不可避免。自古以来，人类都会想方设法将变化变成机会，商业由此诞生。在人类历史上，一些最好的商业机遇，都源自个人或企业在变革期抓住了机会。事实上，这就是首席执行官的主要工作。在7-11（7-Eleven）和百视达（Blockbuster）担任首席执行官期间，我对CEO这个首字母缩略词的解读并不是“首席执行官”，而是“变化等于机会”（Change Equals Opportunity）。
一些首席执行官和他们所在的公司会拥抱变革，抓住机遇，实现繁荣发展，有些却会错失良机。两者的区别往往在于他们是否具备了成功推动业务转型的先决条件。决定输赢的并非变化本身，而是人们应对变化的方式。有时候我们会通过正规的商业教育学到这些原则，但通常情况下这些知识都源自来之不易的经历。纳尔逊·曼德拉曾经说过：“我从未失败。要么赢，要么成长。”现在，我有一些可以分享的“成长经历”。
面对变化，成功实现业务转型有三个先决条件：现金管理、信心和合作。迄今为止，管理现金流是最重要的，但维持充足的现金需要信心与合作。
振兴7-11
7-11是研究现金流的重要性和合作的力量的一个案例。美国南方公司（The Southland Corporation）在1987年6月宣布杠杆收购（LBO）期间，有扩张全球最大便利零售商的大计划。但到10月，金融市场遭遇了严重的市场崩溃，史称“黑色星期一”（Black Monday），一夜之间市值缩水了超过1.7万亿美元。南方公司继续自己的计划，最终获得了交易需要的资金，但公司为此负债40亿美元，利率超过16%。在杠杆收购交易之后，公司必须立即调整业务重心，以应对巨额利息负担。出售业绩不佳的门店、附属业务和公务机队远远不够。1991年，公司被迫申请破产重组。管理层、特许经营商和员工对公司的商业模式失去了信心。公司销售下滑，士气低迷。
但得益于现金流管理、合作与信心，公司看到了一线希望。7-11最大、最成功的授权商日本伊藤洋华堂（Ito Yokado）通过预装破产为公司提供了资金和帮助。凭借对技术的成功利用和授权商证明的新产品的优势，公司改善了经营模式，逆转了长达10年的同店销售额负增长周期，在业务转型后同店销售额有40个季度保持增长，创历史纪录。客户对便利的需求每天都会发生变化，而7-11利用技术，在全球8万多家门店跟上了变化的速度。
全球最大的便利零售商濒临破产的经历，足以让人们警醒，让人们认识到在便利零售业，变化和积极应对变化是基础。
为什么现金始终为王
2005年，7-11公司被成功出售之后，我迫切想把这些经验教训，应用到另一家面临挑战、需要进行业务转型的公司。百视达就是最好的目标。这家公司顺利度过了从VHS录像带到DVD的媒体娱乐转型，甚至经历了DVD领域的“蓝光与高清”之争并存活了下来，但该公司并没有数字化转型的明确计划。
百视达的DVD邮寄租赁业务能够与Netflix成功竞争，但该公司在这个竞争领域却采取了极端措施。Netflix的首席执行官里德·黑斯廷斯称因为对百视达的逾期费用不满，并受此启发创建了Netflix的商业模式。百视达当时的应对方式是取消逾期费，这最终导致该公司放弃了高达8,000万美元的息税折旧摊销前收益（EBITDA）。百视达的资产负债表上有超过10亿美元的负债，失去了这笔息税折旧摊销前收益，不仅限制了百视达与Netflix竞争的能力，也让百视达无法履行其债务义务。
2007年7月，在我担任百视达首席执行官的第一周，我发现百视达（再次）违反了一项银行协议，并且陷入了现金流危机。我根据我们的新转型计划，通过谈判使这项违约得到豁免。
转型计划的一个重要组成部分是收购由六家大型电影制片厂中的五家合作创建的视频流媒体服务公司MovieLink。当时，MovieLink拥有规模最大的流媒体视频库，提供3,000多部电影。百视达收购MovieLink后，将后者更名为Blockbuster On Demand，在与Netflix的DVD邮寄租赁业务甚至新推出的流媒体业务的竞争里，获得了巨大的优势。当时Netflix仅提供数量极其有限的老电影资源库。相比之下，百视达推出了全接入（Total Access）服务，提供5,000多家百视达门店、Blockbuster By Mail、Blockbuster Kiosks和Blockbuster On Demand的娱乐内容，拥有最便利的媒体娱乐渠道。
百视达有得天独厚的条件在视频大战中取胜，在2008年第三季度的财报里，百视达公布了强劲的净收益，息税折旧摊销前收益几乎翻了一番。当时，公司逃过了现金流危机，但2009年公司即将需要偿还一笔债务，百视达的债务再融资变得至关重要。与此同时，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）的破产让全球金融市场崩溃，对市场造成了冲击。我们一直在游说穆迪（Moody’s）和标准普尔（S&P）重新评估百视达的债务评级。穆迪把公司的债务评级提高了两级，但却在新闻稿中表示，金融市场的不确定性提高了百视达的违约概率。百视达的10亿美元债务里，有三分之一计划在2009年再融资，穆迪警告百视达可能无法完成债务再融资。
虽然百视达积极响应变化，但2008年金融市场的突然崩溃迫使公司必须马上采取行动。在这种充满挑战性的时期，维持董事会、员工和股东的信心至关重要。合作变得更重要，因为显而易见，公司的现金跑道不足以进行债务再融资以及继续投资数字转型。
公司探索了多次合作机会。与维亚康姆公司（Viacom）的潜在合作，有可能让公司获得市场上60%以上老电影的独家数字版权。百视达收购MovieLink之后，已经获得了新流媒体内容的使用权限。与维亚康姆合作本来可以阻止Netflix获得流媒体内容，但价格高昂。五年5亿美元的价格超出了百视达当时能够支撑的现金流，导致董事会放弃了这次机会，并让Netflix有机会获得流媒体内容的非排他性使用权。第二个甚至更令人激动的合作对象是谷歌（Google）。与谷歌合作，本来可以让YouTube和百视达分享YouTube上的任何免费内容和百视达上的付费内容。将谷歌变成发行合作伙伴，能够给百视达带来巨大的竞争优势，形成一个现在尚未出现的一站式流媒体娱乐平台。百视达董事会签署了最终协议，但《洛杉矶时报》（LA Times）曝出百视达可能被迫申请破产的“谣言”后，合作被迫搁置。
这条谣言在电影公司中引起了恐慌。它们纷纷把百视达的信用条款从90天缩短到现金支付，在短短几周内，百视达的现金减少了近3亿美元。利益相关者的信心难以维持，但它可能决定了公司根据《破产法》第7章申请破产清算，还是根据第11章申请破产重组。好在我们找到了另外一家合作伙伴Dish Network，并在重组过程里被后者收购。得益于与Dish的合作，百视达可以在视频流媒体战争中继续战斗。虽然百视达品牌依旧处于被搁置的状态，但在Dish的领导下，未来它可能会重新崛起，或许能够提供目前视频流媒体市场上尚不存在的内容聚合服务。
在7-11和百视达的经历告诉我，任何公司都需要适应变化。这需要公司有信心规划新路线，成功度过业务转型的艰难过程，但积极管理现金流依旧是首要任务。虽然债务可以是任何公司发展的重要工具，但在经济动荡和金融市场波动时期，始终是现金为王。（财富中文网）
本文作者詹姆斯·凯斯（James Keyes）现任Key Development有限责任公司（Key Development LLC）的董事长，之前曾经担任7-11和百视达的首席执行官。
译者：刘进龙
审校：汪皓
Change happens! Since the beginning of time, mankind found ways to turn change into opportunity–and commerce was born. Throughout history, some of the best commercial opportunities arose from individuals or corporations seizing opportunities during times of change. In fact, this is the primary role of a CEO. During my tenures as CEO of both 7-Eleven and Blockbuster, my interpretation of the acronym was not Chief Executive Officer–but “Change Equals Opportunity.”
Some CEOs and their respective corporations embrace change, seize the opportunity, and prosper–while others fail. The difference often lies in whether they have the prerequisites to a successful business transformation. It isn’t the change itself that matters, but rather their response to change that separates the winners from losers. Sometimes we learn these principles through a formal business education, but often they result from hard-earned experience. Nelson Mandela once said, “I never lose…I win, or I learn.” I have had some of those “learnings” that I’m now able to share.
There are three prerequisites to a successful business transformation in the face of change: cash management, confidence, and collaboration. Managing cash flow is, by far, the most important but maintaining sufficient cash requires confidence and collaboration.
Turning 7-Eleven around
7-Eleven was a case study on the importance of cash flow and the power of collaboration. During a leveraged buyout (LBO) announced in June 1987, The Southland Corporation had major plans to expand the world’s largest convenience retailer. By October, however, the financial markets experienced the severe market crash known as “Black Monday,” erasing over $1.7 trillion in value overnight. The Southland Corporation continued with its plans and ultimately funded the transaction–but with over $4 billion in debt at over 16% interest. After the LBO transaction, an immediate shift in priority was necessary to satisfy the massive interest burden. The sale of underperforming stores, ancillary businesses, and the fleet of corporate jets weren’t enough. By 1991, the company was forced into a Chapter 11 restructuring. Management, franchisees, and employees had lost confidence in the business model. Sales and morale dwindled.
A silver lining would emerge–thanks to cash-flow management, collaboration, and confidence. 7-Eleven’s largest and most successful licensee, Ito Yokado of Japan, provided financing and helped the corporation through a pre-packaged bankruptcy. An improved business model based on the successful use of technology and strength of new product introductions as demonstrated by the licensee helped the company reverse a 10-year cycle of negative same-store sales and embark on a record 40 quarters of improved same-store sales after transforming the business. Customers’ convenience needs change every day, and 7-Eleven harnessed technology to keep up with those changes in over 80,000 stores worldwide.
The near-death experience of the world’s largest convenience retailer was exactly the wake-up call needed to spark a recognition that change, and the proactive response to change, were fundamental in convenience retail.
Why cash is always king
Following the successful sale of 7-Eleven, Inc in 2005, I was anxious to put these learnings to work in another company challenged with the need for business transformation. What better target than Blockbuster? The company had successfully managed the evolution of media entertainment from VHS tapes to DVDs and even survived the “Blu-Ray vs. HiDef” DVD shootout–but did not have a clear plan for digital transformation.
Blockbuster was able to compete successfully with Netflix for the DVD By-Mail business but took extreme measures in that competitive battle. Netflix CEO Reed Hastings claimed to have been inspired to create the Netflix model after being annoyed with Blockbuster’s late fees. Blockbuster then countered by eliminating late fees–a decision that ultimately caused the company to give up $80mm in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization( EBITDA). With over $1 billion of debt on the balance sheet, the reduction of EBITDA not only constrained the ability to compete with Netflix but also made it more difficult for Blockbuster to satisfy its debt obligations.
During my first week as the new CEO in July 2007, I discovered that Blockbuster had violated a bank covenant (again) and was in a cashflow crisis. I was able to negotiate a forgiveness of the covenant violation based on the strength of our new transformation plan.
An essential element of that transformation was the acquisition of MovieLink, a streaming video service created by collaboration among five of the six major film studios. MovieLink had the largest library of streaming videos at the time with over 3,000 movies available. Blockbuster’s acquisition of MovieLink, renamed Blockbuster OnDemand, provided a significant competitive advantage over Netflix’s DVD-by-mail business and even their nascent streaming offer which provided a very limited assortment of older movies. In contrast, Blockbuster had the most convenient access to media entertainment with an offer called Total Access that provided entertainment at over 5,000 Blockbuster stores, Blockbuster By Mail, Blockbuster Kiosks, and Blockbuster On Demand.
Well positioned to declare victory in the video wars, Blockbuster announced strong net earnings and nearly doubling EBITDA in its third quarter 2008 earnings release. The company’s cash flow crisis had been averted for the time being–but a debt repayment in 2009 was looming and it was essential that Blockbuster refinanced its debt. Meanwhile, the financial markets worldwide were beginning to crumble with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, sending shockwaves through the market. We had been lobbying Moody’s and S&P to review Blockbuster’s debt ratings and were rewarded with a two-notch upgrade from Moody’s, but in their press release the agency reported that uncertainty in the financial markets caused an increase in Blockbuster’s probability of default. A third of Blockbuster’s $1 billion debt was due to be refinanced in 2009, and Moody’s warned that the company may be unable to refinance its debt.
Despite the company’s proactive response to change, the unexpected collapse of the financial markets in 2008 caused an immediate need for action. Sustaining the confidence of the board, employees, and shareholders during this challenging time was essential. Collaboration became more important since it was clear that the company would not have the cash runway required to both refinance its debt and continue its investment in digital transformation.
Several collaboration opportunities were explored. A potential collaboration with Viacom would have provided exclusive access to digital rights for over 60% of the older movies in the market. Blockbuster already had access to new release streaming through its MovieLink acquisition. The Viacom deal would have prevented Netflix from access to streaming content, but it carried a huge price tag. The five-year, $500mm commitment was simply more than Blockbuster’s cash flow could support at the time, causing the board to decline the opportunity and opening the window for Netflix to acquire non-exclusive access to streaming content. A second, even more exciting deal was in the works with Google. The Google collaboration would have put YouTube and Blockbuster side by side with any free content going to YouTube and any paid content going to Blockbuster. Having Google as a distribution partner would have provided a significant competitive advantage and facilitated the one-stop-shop that still doesn’t exist for access to streaming media entertainment. The Blockbuster board signed the definitive agreement, but the deal stalled when the LA Times reported a “rumor” that Blockbuster may be forced to file for bankruptcy.
The rumor also created fear among the movie studios. One by one, they reduced Blockbuster’s credit terms from 90 days to cash payment, taking nearly $300 million of float out of the Blockbuster system within a matter of weeks. Confidence among stakeholders is difficult to maintain–but it can make the difference between a Chapter 7 liquidation and a Chapter 11 restructuring. Thankfully, we were able to bring another collaboration partner to the table with Dish Network rising to the occasion to acquire the company through restructuring. With Dish, Blockbuster would live to fight another day in the streaming video wars. While still on the shelf, the brand could reemerge one day under Dish’s leadership, perhaps providing the aggregation of content access that doesn’t yet exist in the video streaming market.
Learnings from both the 7-Eleven and Blockbuster journeys point to the need for any business to adapt to change. That adaptation requires confidence to chart a new course and to successfully navigate the turbulent path to business transformation–but the proactive management of cash flow remains job number one. While debt can be an essential tool for the growth of any business, during turbulent times and financial market volatility, cash will always be king.
James Keyes is the chairman of Key Development LLC and a former CEO of 7-Eleven and Blockbuster.
